Saturday, April 27, 2013

27/4/2013: Bars, Pubs, Recession Craic

I recently watched an Irish comedian (let's keep the names out of this) quip that Irish people are not having that bad of a time during this recession, as we are still going out for pints, and that is all that matters in measuring our happiness.

Obviously, humor aside, there can be some truth in this. Most of entertainment and 'cultural' life in this country revolves about the pub or (in shwankier neighborhoods - around a cocktail bar). So bars sales can be a somewhat decent indicator of some sort of the social well-being in this country.

How did bar sales fare in the Great Recession? Four charts:

By value (chart above),

  • Bar sales were down 18.1% on average in the period from January 2008 through present (March 2013), aka pre-crisis period, compared to the crisis period from January 2005 through December 2007.
  • In March 2013 they were down 14.6% on pre-crisis average. 3mo average through March 2013 was down 1.5% y/y.
  • So by value of sales, we are not heading for the pub as much.
  • Worse, compared to both All Retail Sales and to Retail Sales of Food - Bars sales are doing much worse. 
  • Noting that Food sales are running above pre-crisis average, both currently and on the basis of crisis average, and also noting that Food sales are signals of us staying more at home, rather than going out to pubs and bars and restaurants, there is no indicator here that we are having good times during this recession. At least not in the pubs.
Next: volume of sales:


Again as with value of sales, volume of sales index shows that the above conjecture of 'good times' is not holding up. In fact, comparative dynamics for retail sales in bars in volume are worse than dynamics in value.

Here's a more distilled version, showing dynamics in bars sales compared to all retail sales:

And here's an illustration of divergent dynamics between food and bars sales:


Seems like if we are having 'craic' in this recession, it is not in our locals or in the Temple Bar, but with a bottle of cheaper booze at home, drumstick in hand, slippers on...

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

This shows that government policy of eliminating disposable income is working.

The Dork of Cork said...

The super hard but brittle Euro helps to destroy all rational domestic demand.
This free up resources for grot (credit based) buying.
I am sure you will see a general decline in bar sales since about 1979 relative to other stuff as this is the moment we went down the euro road of deflation.

WE WERE A IMPERIAL MARKET.
Now in the age of $100 oil the people are worth more dead then alive or at least live a crude life locked within a Aldi store.

Before euro , before 1980 /86.

Before EMU :Euro countries internal goods cheap / external (China , oil ?) goods expensive relative to cash flow.

During euro bliss years : Internal goods expensive / external goods cheap…relative to cash flow.

Euro 9th circle years : both internal and external goods too expensive for now limited level of cash flow….



Its a failure of globalization.

We need to get back to the world of Cork Dockers getting paid in units that will be spent in the local early morning pub on the quay waiting for the nest ship to come in.
I.e. Irish money needs to have a much tighter orbit.

The economy is bleeding all over the dance floor.

Anonymous said...

I'd go with what the Dork says.

Having said that I did see the author of the True Economics blog early on a Saturday morning (at around 02.00hrs)
in Dame Street!

TrueEconomics said...

Conducting primary research, strictly.