Showing posts with label Irish economy forecast 2013. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Irish economy forecast 2013. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

17/4/2013: Talking of Being Stuck in a Wrong Hood...

In recent presentations on the global economy, euro area and Ireland I have stressed the fact that we (EA and Ireland) are stuck in the 'wrong hood' - low growth, ageing and socially sclerotic environments with no structural drivers for creation of new value added.

Here's a good visual courtesy of the IMF WEO April 2013 (full publication here):

First, the World of new regionalisation, with:
  • Stagnant North-East or Fortress Europe
  • Drowsy North-West or Fortress North America
  • Dynamic Asia-Pacific or Bad Boys Gang
  • Dynamic Latin America or Government Spending Junkies
  • Emerging Africa or Catch-up Hare:

 And zooming onto our (Ireland's) hood:

Per IMF (italics are mine): "The near-term outlook for the euro area has been revised downward, with activity now expected to  contract by ¼ percent in 2013, instead of expanding by ¼ percent as projected in the October 2012  WEO (Table 2.1). This reflects declines in growth projections across all euro area countries, with notable revisions in some core members (France, Germany, Netherlands). Growth will strengthen gradually through the year, reaching 1 percent by the fourth quarter, as the pace of fiscal consolidation (at ¾ percent of GDP) is eased by almost half during 2013.

But growth will generally remain subdued as improvements in private sector borrowing conditions are hampered by financial market fragmentation and ongoing balance sheet repair. Further headwinds to growth could result from a sustained appreciation of the euro that lowers competitiveness and dampens export growth."

Table referenced above:

Do note that per above, with exception of France, all euro area economies are expected to pursue 'exports-led' or 'exports-supported recovery' in 2013-2014. And also do note that unemployment in this 'exporting haven' is not expected to improve in 2013-2014.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

28/10/2012: Some more EZ forecasts from Citi


Two more charts from Citi Research highlighting some growth differentials within the Euro area (note second chart - Ireland position).



As I mentioned before, these are not my views, these are Citi forecasts. Where I broadly agree with Citi on: 1) Ireland is likely to outperform EZ average growth in longer term (I am not sure about 3.0 and 3.1 percent growth in real terms in 2015-2016); and 2) EZ growth is likely to average around or below 1% in 2014-2016. More short-term, I doubt EZ will stay in a recession territory in 2013 (full year) and in 2014.