Showing posts with label Unemployment in Ireland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Unemployment in Ireland. Show all posts

Thursday, October 9, 2014

9/10/2014: Where Did Ireland's Young Ones Go?..


ECB Monthly Bulletin for October: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/art1_mb201410_pp49-68.en.pdf has a nifty chart, mapping proportion of younger people who are not in employment, education or training:


So guess what... Ireland has 3rd highest inactive population of younger people as proportion of total population - in other words, those who are neither unemployed, nor in education or training. And Ireland had the 3rd highest inactive population of the younger people back in 2007 too.

What on earth are these young people doing?! Working in the black economy?

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

26/11/2013: Broader Unemployment & Underemployment in Ireland: Q3 2013


This is the first post on the QNHS results for Q3 2013, covering broader metrics of unemployment as reported by the CSO, plus the State Training Programmes (STP) participation.

Terminology first:

Per CSO data:

  • PLS1 (unemployed persons plus discouraged workers) unemployment rate stood at 13.8% down from 14.8% in Q2 2013 and 16% in Q3 2012. Compared to peak, PLS1 is now 2.4 percentage points lower. Q3 2013 rate stands at the lowest since Q4 2009.
  • PLS2 (PLS1 + Potential Additional Labour Force) rate declined from 16.2% in Q2 2013 to 15.2% in Q3 2013. The rate was 17.1 in Q3 2012. Current rate is the lowest since Q1 2010 and is down 2.1 percentage points on the peak.
  • PLS3 (PLS2 + others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in E/T) rate fell to 17.5% in Q3 2013 from 18.2% in Q2 2013 and is now down 1.5 percentage points on Q3 2012. PLS3 is down 1.7 percentage points on peak and is the lowest reading since Q1 2010.
  • PLS4 (PLS3 + underemployed) was at 23.5% in Q3 2013, down on 24.7% in Q2 2013 and on 25.5% in Q3 2012. Relative to peak the rate is down 2.3 percentage points and this marks the lowest reading since Q4 2010.
  • Adding State Training Programmes participation data from the CSO Live Register reports, PLS4+STP measure is now at 27.0% down on 27.8% in Q2 2013 and 28.9% in Q3 2012. Compared to peak the measure is down 1.91 percentage points and the measure is at its lowest level since Q1 2011.
  • Finally, adding estimated emigration rate, PLS4+STP rate rises to close to 28.0% in Q3 2013, down on 28.7% in Q2 2013. This is an estimate, so should be treated with caution.
Charts to illustrate and summarise:


While the above data is positive, it should be treated with some caution, as the turnaround in employment driving the above statistics is reflective of significant increases in part-time and self-employment figures. In addition, with just 4 quarters of downtrend in the series so far, the dynamics, while encouraging, are yet to be fully established.

Additional good news was provided by the Labour Force numbers:

  • Labour Force numbers rose to 2,182,100 in Q3 2013 from 2,165,800 in Q3 2012, gaining 16,300 year on year.
  • Labour force numbers were up 44,600 on crisis period trough in Q3 2013.
  • Crisis trough to pre-crisis annual average stands at 136,400. Last 12 months average relative to pre-crisis average stands at -115,450, which means we are around 2.5-3 years out from closing the gap.


Stay tuned for more analysis tomorrow.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

29/8/2013: Broader Unemployment & Underemployment in Ireland: Q2 2013


On foot of the latest data from the QNHS (broad trends analysis here), let's take a look at the broader measures of unemployment, as reported by the CSO (with the last measure: PLS4+STP being compiled by myself based on CSO data from the Live Register and QNHS).

Here are the core definitions, used:


And the numbers are:



  • PLS1 - unemployed persons plus discouraged workers - rose from 14.6% in Q1 2013 to 14.8% in Q2 2013, but declined 1.3 percentage points on Q2 2012. Relative to peak (16.2% in Q3 2011), the indicator is now down 1.4 percentage points, which is a pretty poor performance, when you think of it: 1.4 ppt down in 7 quarters).
  • PLS2 is at 16.2% in Q2 2013, up on 16% in Q4 2012 and Q1 2012. Year on year, indicator is down 1.0 percentage points and it is down 1.1 percentage points on peak attained in Q3 2011. Again, poor performance relative to peak.
  • PLS3 is at 18.2%, up on 18.0% in Q1 2013 and down 0.7 ppt on Q2 2012. Relative to peak the indicator is down 1.0 percentage points with the peak at Q3 2011.
  • PLS4 is at 24.7%, which is down on 24.9% in Q1 2013 and is also down 1.1 ppt y/y. Q2 2012 was the peak reading for indicator, so PLS4 is down now 1.1 ppt on peak too - decline delivered over 4 quarters.
  • Finally, adding State Training Programmes participants to PLS4, we have PLS4+STP indicator at 27.8%, down on 28.9% in Q1 2013 and down only 0.5 ppt on Q2 2012. Indicator peak was attained in Q3 2012, so the indicator is now down 1.1 ppt on peak.
Summary of y/y and relative to peak changes recorded in Q2 2013 is here:



Lastly, gains in the labour force illustrated:


The above marks a nice increase in the labour force participation out to 2,170,700 in Q2 2013 from 2,137,500 in Q1 2013 and 2,159,100 in Q2 2012. The increase, however, comes off the low base to begin with and basically returns labour force numbers to the levels where they were back around Q3 2011.

Summary: Broader unemployment and underemployment metrics are improving y/y but not q/q. The broadest measure PLS4+STP down very marginally y/y by just 0.5 percentage points. This is hardly encouraging. On a positive side, all metrics are showing signs of stabilisation, albeit at very high levels of unemployment and underemployment. In most basic terms, with 27.8% of our broader potential workforce either unemployed, underemployed or in state training programmes, we have a real problem on our hands, still, and it is not getting better at any appreciable rate of improvement.

29/8/2013: Some positives v negatives from QNHS data: Q2 2013

Latest QNHS figures from Ireland are encouraging. Actually, given much of the tough news on the front of employment and jobs creation prior, these are heart warming. Here are the headlines:

Employment:
  • "There was an annual increase in employment of 1.8% or 33,800 in the year to the second quarter of 2013, bringing total employment to 1,869,900. This compares with an annual increase in employment of 1.1% in the previous quarter and a decrease of 1.3% in the year to Q2 2012." This is good. Employment is up against adverse demographic effects, which is good, but it is also up due to superficial effects of reclassifications of some categories (see warning below).
  • Even better news: "Full-time employment increased by 21,600 or 1.5% in the year to Q2 2013 while part-time employment increased by 12,100 or 2.8% over the year." So levels of increase in full-time employment are outstripping increases in part-time employment, implying that average jobs pool quality is not declining anymore.
  • This marks third consecutive quarter of q/q increases in employment: "On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment increased by 9,600 (+0.5%) in the quarter." There was a seasonally adjusted increase in employment of 9,000 (+0.5%) in Q1 2013 and 12,100 (+0.7%) in Q4 2012.
  • Employment increases and decreases composition are not sending a good signal, with higher value-added sub-categories of employment up: "Employment fell in five of the fourteen economic sectors over the year... The greatest rates of decline were recorded in the Administration and support service activities(-7.9% or -5,000), Transportation and storage (-5.4% or -4,900) and Public administration and defence; compulsory social security (-4.5% or -4,500) sectors. The largest rates of increase were recorded in the Agriculture, forestry and fishing (+18.7% or 16,300) and the Accommodation and food service activities(+8.0% or 9,600) sectors. 
  • Here is a warning shot on the above figures: "In the case of the Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector it can be noted that estimates of employment in this sector have shown to be sensitive to sample changes over time." So, wait... +16,300 'new' jobs in Agriculture etc are really old jobs reclassified... or at least a large share of these are... Oops.. Note that this exactly matches decrease in the 'Not in the labour force' category (-16,300 y/y) and this knocks out quite a bit of wind out of the 'jobs creation' figures sails...

Unemployment:
  • "The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 13.8% to 13.7% over the quarter while the number of persons unemployed fell marginally by 500 persons, again on a seasonally adjusted basis." This is news in so far it is 'official' QNHS reading, but we knew 13.7% figure back in May when we had the standardised rate of unemployment estimate from Live Register.
  • "Unemployment decreased by 22,200 (-6.9%) in the year to Q2 2013 bringing the total number of persons unemployed to 300,700. This is the fourth quarter in succession where unemployment has declined on an annual basis." Which is good news, indeed, except, wait... what about the 16,300 'new' jobs in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing flagged above? Marginal decline of just 500 in terms of q/q seasonally-adjusted unemployment is a poor reading, to be honest. Better than an increase, but still, very weak. This weakness suggests that the bulk of 22,200 declines in unemployment rosters is due to exits and reclassifications of workers, not due to jobs creation.
  • "The long-term unemployment rate decreased from 9.2% to 8.1% over the year to Q2 2013. Long-term unemployment accounted for 58.2% of total unemployment in Q2 2013 compared with 61.8% a year earlier and 56.1% in the second quarter of 2011." What we do not know here is whether this decrease was due to exits from benefits or entries into jobs or move to state-run training programmes. I will do analysis on these later, so stay tuned.

Labour force participation:

  • Good news: "The total number of persons in the labour force in the second quarter of 2013 was 2,170,700, representing an increase of 11,500 (+0.5%) over the year. This compares with an annual labour force decrease of 19,600 (-0.9%) in Q2 2012." 
  • The above is a good bit of news and it is made even better when we consider that increases in labour force were driven by increased participation rather than by demographic effects. In Q2 2013 there was a negative demographic effect cutting -16,300 from the overall labour force. This was more than offset by "a positive participation effect of 27,800 on the size of the labour force over the year.
  • There was "an increase in the overall participation rate from 60.1% to 60.5% over the year to Q2 2013." Which is excellent news.
  • "The number of persons not in the labour force in Q2 2013 was 1,415,600, a decrease of 16,300 (-1.1%) over the year." This seems to be related to reclassifications into Agriculture, etc. sector.
To summarise:
We have some positive news above, but overall, numbers remain obscured by reclassifications, changes in composition and lack of clarity on flows in- and out- of unemployment. 

Analysis of broader measures of unemployment, more indicative of underlying quality and nature of changes in the aggregate figures, is to follow, so stay tuned.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

7/8/2013: Sunday Times, July 28, 2013: Ireland's Polarised Paralysed Economy

This is an unedited version of my article in the Sunday Times from July 28, 2013.


The latest news from the economy front both in Ireland and across the Euro area have been signaling some shallow improvements in growth outlook for the second and third quarters of 2013. However, the end game of a recovery currently building up will be a greater polarization of the real economy and little net new jobs creation. As supply of skills by indigenous workers remains mismatched to the demand for skills by exporting sectors, restart of exports-led growth of the future will not trickle down to the ordinary families. Meanwhile, long-term unemployment is hitting harder our older indigenous workers, and our entrepreneurship is in a structural decline. Responding to these problems will require a radical shift in the way we enable entrepreneurship, support professional labour mobility and increase investment in education and skills.


To see this, first consider the drivers for the latest improvements in the news flows. June Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Manufacturing in Ireland has finally reached just a notch above 50.0, signaling expansion for the first time since February 2013. Services PMI jumped to 54.9, marking 11th consecutive month of index readings above 50. Across the Euro area, Spanish Manufacturing PMI reached above 50 in June for the first time in 27 months. Italian PMI posted a rise for the third month in a row, although it remains below the expansion mark of 50.0. Germany's July composite PMI estimate for services and manufacturing hit a 17-month high at 52.8 and French estimate came in at 48.8 - an improvement on 47.4 in June.

Even though the end to the longest recession in euro area's history might be in sight, the recovery is unlikely to be strong. Euro area economies, Ireland included, genuinely lack sustainable drivers for growth. In addition, the processes of establishing new sources for future growth - new entrepreneurship and investment cycles – have been severely delayed both by the crises and by our policy responses to these crises.

In normal recessions, higher unemployment leads to higher involuntary entrepreneurship, as laid off workers deploy their skills and expertise into the market through self-employment and as sole-traders. In Ireland, in part due to tax hikes hitting the self-employed the hardest, this did not take place. According to the Enterprise Ireland report published earlier this month, the proportion of early stage entrepreneurs here has fallen from 8.1% average over 2003-2008 period to 6.1% in 2012. Ireland now ranks 18th out of 34 OECD countries in terms of entrepreneurship, just as the Government is expending millions on PR campaigns extolling the virtues of its pro-entrepreneurial policies and culture.

Beyond shrinking entrepreneurship, Irish labour markets are continuing to show signs of long-term, structural distress. The headline figures on Irish unemployment tell the story.

At the end of June 2013, there were 516,751 recipients of Live Register supports, including those in state and community training programmes. Some of the latter are involuntary in so far as they are linked to continued receipt of unemployment benefits. In June 2011, the same number was 517,187. The Government is boisterously claiming the economy is creating 2,000 new jobs per month. The same Government has spent hundreds of millions on enterprise supports and investment schemes, published series of programmes promising new jets in tens of thousands. Amidst this PR circus, the unemployment supports counts have declined by less than 500 over two years.

Based on the Quarterly National Household Survey data, we can take a more granular look into the jobs creation dynamics in the economy.

Between Q1 2011 and Q1 2013, the latest period for which data is available, total non-agricultural employment in the country fell by 9,200. In 12 months through March 2013, Irish economy added only 4,900 non-agricultural jobs. Some 19,000 shy of what our ministers in charge of jobs creation and enterprise policies allege. Controlling for health and education jobs, private sector saw destruction of 11,600 non-agricultural jobs since Q1 2011 when the Government came to power. Even in the booming Information and Communication services, overall employment fell by 1,100 in 12 months through Q1 2013, despite robust hiring in the exporting MNCs operating in the sector.

Underneath the surface, the trend is for displacement of Irish workers by age cohorts and by skills. This means that more and more foreign workers are taking up new positions created in sectors such as ICT and IFS to replace positions lost in domestic sectors. It also implies that older Irish workers are now being consigned to the risk of perpetual unemployment.

On the first point, while there is virtually no net new jobs additions in the economy, the positions that are being created to replace those being destroyed by the crisis, are getting progressively worse in terms of their quality. In the higher value-added private sectors, such as ICT services, professional, scientific, and technical activities, financial, insurance services and the likes, employment shrunk by 6,100 in Q1 2013 compared to Q1 2011 and by 900 compared to Q1 2012. Year on year there have been some 9,300 new jobs created in the top three professional occupations when ranked by earnings. However, more than half of these were part-time jobs. These are hardly the jobs that are attracting foreign talent into Ireland, suggesting that of the full time jobs in ICT and IFSC sectors created, the vast majority are taken up by non-Irish workers.

Regarding the last point, in June 2013, compared to June 2010, by age, the only cohort of Irish workers that saw a decline in Live Register numbers are those under the age of 35. All other age cohorts saw increases in Live Register participation. Between June 2010 and June 2013, numbers of long-term unemployed and underemployed rose 20% for workers under 35 years of age, 54% for workers of 35-54 years of age, and 106% for workers older than 55. In effect, we are currently assigning older workers to spend the rest of their working-age life in unemployment.

All of the above is best summed by the quarterly data on unemployment. At the end of March 2013, 25% of Irish workforce was either unemployed, underemployed or marginally-attached to the workforce, up on 23.7% in Q1 2011. Adding to the above those in state training schemes pushes the true broad unemployment rate in Ireland to 29% in Q1 2013, up on 26% in Q1 2011.


As I asserted at the top of the article, evidence shows that there is basically no net jobs creation going on in Ireland since Q1 2011. It further shows that older and predominantly Irish workers are experiencing an ever-rising risk of perpetual unemployment. Amongst the younger cohorts of workers, the main beneficiaries of the ICT and IFSC exporting sectors boom are temporary residents from abroad. Of the jobs still being added in the economy, majority are of low quality and cannot be relied upon to sustain long-term financial viability of Irish households. Lastly, skills mismatches between indigenous workers and exporting sectors demand are offering little hope that exports-led growth of the future will trickle down to ordinary families in Ireland.

The response to the above problem will have to be a structural shift in the way we support and treat entrepreneurship, professional labour mobility and investment in education and skills.

Currently, government policies overwhelmingly disfavor self-employed, indigenous entrepreneurs, and risk-taking professionals. In return, our policies promote development of tax optimizing FDI-backed large enterprises. Thus, early stage entrepreneurs face higher direct and indirect taxes than mature corporations and PAYE employees. Risk-taking, mobile, highly skilled professionals face lower quality and higher cost safety nets than immobile, old-skills-reliant tenured employees. Both mobile employees and entrepreneurs are also facing higher risks of unemployment, greater prospects of disruptive shocks to their incomes and larger exposure to health and family shocks. Meanwhile, for would-be entrepreneurs and flexible markets employees currently in underemployment or unemployment, life-long learning systems are costly to access and, with few exceptions, are of dubious quality.

These obstacles to increasing functional mobility of workers and human capital investments in our workforce can only be dealt with via a drastic, costly and disruptive reforms of our welfare system.  In part, the Government is currently attempting to undertake some of these reforms, albeit against the rising tide of internal discontent between the coalition partners.

But the current reforms proposals are not going far enough. Specifically, we will need to separate unemployment supports from general welfare and make these supports available to self-employed and flex-employment workers at no increase in cost of provision to these workers. The test for accessing all benefits – unemployment insurance and general welfare – should include skills levels and the entire past history of employment and entrepreneurship. Thus, higher unemployment supports should be given to those who have contributed more in the past in terms of taxes paid and entrepreneurship or human capital investment efforts undertaken. Conversely, they should have lower access to welfare benefits. To afford the strengthening of the safety net at the front end of unemployment, we will have to cut back the general social welfare benefits for able-bodied adults.

Parallel to these reforms we also need to change the way we do business in the areas such as childcare and life-long-learning. The goal of such reforms should be to increase access and supports for families at risk of unemployment in the 30-35 years of age and older cohorts. One possible long-term improvement would be to incentivize on-shoring of corporate training services into Ireland by the multinationals, coupled with requirement that such services take on a set percentage of Irish workers for training purposes and apprenticeships. Another reform can see greater and more strategic engagement of multinationals with indigenous entrepreneurs and SMEs.

A deep re-think of our current policies on dealing with unemployment requires breaking down traditional siloes in public policy and management that exist between various departments. The last two years – filled with good intentions and loud policies announcements show that the strategies deployed to-date are not working.






Box-out:

The latest data from the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) shows that Dublin property prices posted a year on year price increase of 4.15% in June and a 1.69% cumulative rise over the last six months. However encouraging this might sound, the data must be treated with caution for a number of reasons. Firstly, the main driver for the latest improvement in the RPPI was sales of Dublin apartments. These are highly volatile and are based on few transactions. Secondly, outside Dublin, the markets remain weak. Thirdly, latest mortgages data shows that while borrowing posted a cautious rise in the first half of 2013, mortgages affordability is falling. Lastly, current sales levels and valuations are not pricing in the upcoming wave of foreclosures (starting with Buy-to-Let markets around Q4 2013 and running though 2014) that will be required to deleverage banks balance sheets. The fact is: in June 2013 the All-Properties RPPI, was still down 1.5% on Q1 2012 average and is basically unchanged on December 2012-January 2013 levels. In other words, while pockets of strength might emerge in Dublin market, overall property market is currently bouncing at the bottom of the negative cycle, looking for a catalyst either up or down.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

6/6/2013: Can Ballyfermot area unemployment be running at ca 60%?

A survey conducted by Sin Fein in the specific area of Dublin landed in my mailbox today.

"Survey shows 60.28% unemployment in Cherry Orchard: Ballyfermot Sinn Féin conducted an unemployment survey in the greater Cherry Orchard area. The purpose of which was to identify at first hand the true level of unemployment experienced by residents.

Speaking today after the survey was published; Sinn Féin’s Ballyfermot representative Daithí Doolan has called for, ‘immediate action to provide jobs for Ballyfermot.’ Doolan said, ‘Our aim was to identify at first hand the true level of unemployment experienced by the residents in Cherry Orchard. The findings of our survey are shocking and should act as a wake-up call to local government TDs.  We knocked on every door in Cherry Orchard. The stories we heard were heart breaking, families struggling with unemployment and emigration. The findings show that a massive 60.28% of those surveyed are unemployed. Even more concerning is the fact that over 85% are long term unemployed."

The question is: the shocking 60.28% unemployment rate figure - can it be true? Sadly, in my opinion, it can be true. Sinn Fein survey basically asked people the broadest question of defining whether they are working or not (self-reported unemployment, unrestricted by CSO methodological constraints). Thus, we can interpret it to be equivalent to CSO PLS4 category of unemployment (see http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/05/3052013-official-broader-unemployment.html), plus those in state training programmes.

I define this metric as PLS4+STP, which in Q1 2013 nationwide was running at ca 29%. However, this metric excludes those who are unemployed and are in non-state training. Given the geography of the area surveyed, there is little reason to believe that the number of those in education and training but not in employment in the area is outside the nationwide average. Adding them into the PLS$+STP group should push overall 'unemployment' as self-reported potentially to 32-33%. The area of Ballyfermot has always had higher rates of unemployment than other areas of the country. For example, in 2006 unemployment in Ballyfermot was reportedly running at around 11.2% while nationwide unemployment was running at 5.2%. In 2008 the same was true, compared to Dublin overall: http://irelandafternama.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/unemployment-dublin-ea-scale-2008.jpg and things got worse into 2009: http://irelandafternama.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/live-register-recipients-increase-aug-08-to-feb-09.jpg.

There is plenty more evidence to support the assertion that overall broader unemployment in the Ballyfermot area can be running at around twice the rate of the national unemployment and this would push broader unemployment in the area surveyed by Sinn Fein out toward 60%.



Friday, May 31, 2013

31/5/2013: Part-time v Full-time Unemployment in Ireland


"Less positively, the Quarterly National Household Survey showed that most of the gains in employment have been in part-time rather than full-time jobs." Irish Times : http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/employment-grows-for-third-successive-quarter-1.1412103?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Sadly, I must say, this is simply incorrect.

In Q1 2013, full-time jobs stood at 1,391,100 which is down on Q4 2012 when these counted 1,398,700 (-7,700 q/q change) and is down on Q1 2012 when the full-time jobs counted 1,394,800 (-3,700 y/y). This is also down on Q1 2011 when full-time jobs numbered 1,401,800 (a net loss of 10,700 full-time jobs in 2 years).

Part-time jobs rises accounted for all, repeat all, increases in Q1 2013: these increased to 454,400 in Q1 2013 from 450,200 in Q4 2012 (+4,200 q/q) and were up on 430,200 (+24,200 y/y) on Q1 2012. This is goodish, as - obviously - it is better that people are working at least part-time. However, it is simply incorrect to claim that "most of the gains in employment have been in part-time rather than full-time jobs" when there were DECREASES in full-time jobs.

Worse than that: the picture is further distorted by the differences in changes in part-time underemployed jobs numbers and part-time not underemployed numbers.

Year on year, part-time not underemployed numbers rose from 291,300 in Q1 2012 to 298,500 in Q1 2013 - a gain of 7,200 or just 29.7% of all part-time (and net) jobs gained y/y. The rest 70% of the jobs gains were amongst part-time underemployed. And compounding this, quarter on quarter, numbers of those in part-time employment who are not underemployed actually fell - from 304,400 in Q4 2012 to 298,500 in Q1 2013.

It would help to read the Table 1 of the CSO release : http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/labourmarket/2013/qnhs_q12013.pdf

Thursday, May 30, 2013

30/5/2013: Official Broader Unemployment in Ireland stands at 25%


The latest data for Q1 2013 from QNHS is out today with worrying sub-trends indicating that the labour markets are not showing any significant improvements in broader metrics of unemployment.

CSO defines 4 measures of broader unemployment:
PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers.
PLS2 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force
PLS3 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training.
PLS4 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training plus part-time underemployed persons as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training.

Since all exclude training, we can add those on State programmes into PLS4 to arrive at PLS4+STP - the broadest measure of unemployment.

Here is a chart:



Year on year through Q1 2013:

  • Standard unemployment (PLS1) declined 1.4% from 16.0% in Q1 2012 to 14.6% in Q1 2013. This is good news, made even better by realising that Q1 2013 reading stood at the lowest level since Q1 2010 when it was 14.2%.
  • Adding potential additional labour force to the PLS1 we have PLS2 measure, which in Q1 2013 was 16.0%, down 1% o n Q1 2012 and marking the lowest reading since Q1 2010 when it was registering 15.1%.
  • PLS3 is the above unemployment plus others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training. This measure stood at 18.0 in Q1 2013, down on 18.8% in Q1 2012 (-0.8% y/y) and bang-on identical to the levels in Q1 2011.
  • Last official measure reported by CSO, PLS4 combines PLS3 and those who are underemployed (in part-time employment, but are seeking full-time employment). PLS4 in Q1 2013 was 25.0% - identical to Q1 2012 and up on Q1 2011 when it stood at 23.7%. Thus, once underemployed are added into the equation, Irish unemployment stood still over the last 12 months. This is not great by any means.
  • Finally, I compute PLS4+ State Training Programmes participants by combining QNHS data with Live Register. In Q1 2013, PLS4+STP measure stood at 29.0%, up 0.7% on Q1 2012 and marking the highest historical point for any quarter on the record (previous record was recoded at 28.991% in Q3 2012, which compares against Q1 2013 level of 28.994%).


Chart 2 shows Q1 2013 measures relative to their historical peaks.



Overall labour force participation rate fell again, this time -0.44% y/y and labour force is now down 162,600 on peak.


Notice: the above numbers do not account for emigration and the above unemployment numbers do not account for those who are of labour force participation age, but are not seeking employment and are no longer registering as being a part of labour force. If gross emigration in 2008-2012 stood around 300,000, and assuming that all of it related to families, taking average participation rate at current 59.5% and applying average size of household to the above emigration numbers implies ca 90,000 emigration for those who otherwise could have been in the labour force. With this number factored in the above numbers change as follows:

  • PLS1 standard unemployment would rise from 312,075 to 401,325 or in percentage terms, from 14.6% to 18.0%
  • PLS2 standard unemployment, plus potential additional labour force numbers would rise from 342,000 to 431,250 or in percentage terms, from 16% to 19.4%
  • PLS3 = PLS2, plus others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training would rise from 384,750 to 474,000 or in percentage terms, from 18% to 21.3%
  • PLS4 combines PLS3 and those who are underemployed (in part-time employment, but are seeking full-time employment) would rise from 534,375 (or 25.0%) to 623,625 (or 18.0%)
  • PLS4 + STP would rise from 619,744 (or 29.0%) to 708,994 (or 31.8%)
With some serious caution we can say that approximately over 700,000 people in this country are now either unemployed, underemployed, on State Training Programmes or have been forced to emigrate by the realities of this crisis. We can also say, with much more clarity, that - per official figures - broad unemployment and underemployment in this country is running at its highest level ever, or 29%. recorded.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

10/4/2013: Broader measures of unemployment in Ireland: 2012

Ireland's broader unemployment rates per CSO and adding State Training Programmes participants are as follows:

  • PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers as of Q4 2012: 14.9%
  • PLS2 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force as of Q4 2012: 16.1%
  • PLS3 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as of Q4 2012: 18.2%
  • PLS4 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training plus part-time underemployed persons as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as of Q4 2012: 24.6%
  • PLS$ indicator including those on State Training Programmes as of Q4 2012: 28.4%


And three charts with dynamics:



Now, y/y changes in percentage points change:
  • PLS1: -0.7 ppt
  • PLS2: -0.6 ppt
  • PLS3: -0.2 ppt
  • PLS4: -0.2 ppt
  • PLS4 and State Training Programmes participants: +0.98 ppt
So one thing is pretty clear: the broader the measure of unemployment we take, the lower is the rate of decline y/y and the smaller is the rate of decline relative to peak. 




Tuesday, April 17, 2012

17/4/2012: EU27 - Minimum wages v unemployment

A very good infographic on relationship between minimum wages and unemployment from one of the blog readers linked here. Please keep in mind: correlation does not mean causation. There is much of a debate in economics as to the causal links (or their absence) between minimum wages and unemployment (general unemployment, rather than age-specific and skills-specific).

Monday, February 13, 2012

13/2/2012: Sunday Times 12/2/2012: The perils of long-term unemployment


This is an unedited version of my article in Sunday Times, 12 February, 2012.



The conflicting nature of the most recent data on unemployment in Ireland paints the picture of an economy bouncing at the bottom of the Great Recession. However, underlying trends in long-term unemployment represent the single greatest threat to our growth potential in years to come.


The latest Live Register figures reflect two months of consecutive and robust declines in the numbers drawing unemployment assistance. In December 2011, seasonally-adjusted Live Register dropped 3,600 (the third largest monthly decline since the beginning of the crisis). This was followed by a 3,200 decline in January 2012, marking the fourth biggest downward adjustment in the series since January 2008. Yet, January 2011 Live Register total remains just 2.1% below the peak of 449,200 attained in September 2010.

Since 2009, net emigration form Ireland totalled some 76,400 and gross emigration amounted to 236,800 according to CSO. Absent the officially registered emigration, Irish Live Register would have been closer to 522,900 in January 2012. In other words, the Live Register improvements now conceal, not reveal, the true extent of joblessness and underemployment in the country.

In contrast to the Live Register data, more direct evidence on the job markets conditions is provided by the monthly Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) surveys published by NCB Stockbrokers. These make for a rather depressing reading. January Services PMI employment conditions registered a deeply contractionary 44.5, exacerbating declines posted in December 2011. January marked the sharpest rate of decline in the services sectors employment in 21 months. In Manufacturing employment index rose in December to 50.5 before falling again to a contractionary 49.5 in January 2012. Manufacturing employment index is now 4.1% below January 2011, marking the fourth drop in the past five months.

These are the short-term signs of the labour market that remains in continued distress. And further deterioration in the underlying jobs and employment dynamics can be expected in the medium term.

Firstly, dramatic increases in the cost of laying off workers under Budget 2012 are likely to translate into an overall stabilization of the Live Register figures at a cost of the deterioration in the quality of jobs (wages and bonuses, and promotional opportunities losses) and hours of work as employers will be seeking cuts to their cost bases through lower pay and fewer billable hours. Budget 2012 makes it less likely that employers will be taking on new workers any time soon.

Secondly, the already rampant rise of the long term structural unemployment will continue unabated. Here Ireland is in the league of its own when compared to other European economies. In Q3 2011 our long-term unemployment stood at 8.8% - the third highest in the EU27. Over the period covered we have experienced a sharpest increase in long-term unemployment in Europe.

Matters are even worse when it comes to very long-term unemployment – defined as unemployment spells in excess of 24 months. With a rate of 5.4% in Q3 2011 we are now the second worst performer in Europe in terms of overall very long-term unemployment rate, and we are the absolute worst in the EU27 in terms of increases in very long-term unemployment since the beginning of the crisis.


Long-term unemployment exacts tremendous social and economic tolls. International research shows that long-term spell out of work leads to reduced life-time earnings (with estimates of up to 20% loss in earnings years after the return to the job market), higher probability of future unemployment (in some studies reaching over 2.3 times higher probability of unemployment that average), and rapid and profound deterioration in human capital of the unemployed. These effects also hold for those entering the workforce during the periods of elevated long-term unemployment, such as the current Irish graduates.

In today’s environment, rising long-term unemployment in Ireland, threatens to reinforce already adverse future trends in productivity growth. A study by the European Commission from 2006 has shown that across EU27, over the next 25-30 years, ageing workforce will require greater use of skills-driven productivity growth. The last thing we want is to lose the skills of the current generations of young workers and students to long-term unemployment.


In terms of timing of the policy responses to the long-term unemployment, therefore, it is critical that we do not delay the necessary structural reforms.

Most of the research on the policy solutions to this problem is focused on the structural and institutional aspects of the labour markets. A number of recent studies from the UK, Italy, and the US, as well as more broadly-focused studies across the advanced economies show that long duration strong unemployment protection, and high cost of hiring and laying off workers, along with rigid systems of wage setting can act as structural barriers to dealing with the long-term unemployment. This point has been most recently flagged in the case of Ireland by the OECD report from June 2011. High minimum wage and strong collective bargaining have been linked to segmentation of the labour force and increased job instability for the younger and less-skilled workers. Systemic reforms of social welfare and wages-setting mechanisms are clearly an extremely painful, but necessary part of the comprehensive solution.

On the enabling side of the policy equation, the focus should be on enhancing the human capital of the unemployed and incentives for private sector jobs creation, not public investment-driven policies.

Immediate labour market measures should be developed for the long-term younger unemployed. The Government, consistent with the advice from the IMF and OECD is pursuing so-called active labour market programmes in this area. These are primarily represented by the ‘push’ policies designed to force young people off the unemployment benefits and into state-run training programmes. According to the Nobel Laureate James Heckman training schemes designed to de-list people from the unemployment rosters had zero effect on labor markets outcomes in the 1990s. More recent research for European countries experiences prior to 2008 confirms the same. In Ireland the real impact of FAS programmes on long-term unemployment both before and during the crisis has been negligible.

OECD data very clearly shows that Ireland spends more than the Nordic countries as well as high income EU countries on direct jobs creation and state training. In total, Ireland spent 0.87% of GDP or 1.10% of GNP in 2010 on all active labour markets programmes, compared against 1.06% in the Nordic countries and 0.70% in the rest of the high income EU states. It is clear that we are simply not getting a good value for money out of this expenditure.

Instead of relying on active labour markets programmes alone, Ireland should focus on facilitating formal education access for long-term unemployed, especially to undergraduate and MSc programmes closely aligned with business and industry interests and featuring large component of direct industry-related teaching. Retraining grants and supports can be linked with mobility grants to assist mobility of those moving off unemployment benefits.

For the very young at-risk of future unemployment, financial incentives to stay in school can be developed via social welfare systems.

There is strong evidence to support the view that private sector jobs creation can be assisted through carefully targeted tax breaks and deferrals. These require extremely close monitoring, strict conditionality and enforcement, while assuring that there is no older workers displacement. Another significant measure would be to suspend minimum wage for all workers under-25 years of age, but this policy cannot be expected to generate sustainable, higher quality jobs.

Reducing USC rates for self-employed below those for PAYE workers to reflect the reality of their restricted access to social benefits would provide some support for early-stage entrepreneurship and skills-based self-employment.

The last thing the Government should do in the current environment is to use scarce taxpayers cash on direct physical capital investment as such measure would subsidise capital-intensive, not skills-enhancing activities which will cease the minute Government cash dries up once again.

Both the IMF and the OECD provide very clear-cut suggestions as to the core composition of the structural labor markets reforms based on three pillars: welfare reforms, labour markets reforms and activation systems enhancement. Augmenting these with more direct measures to incentivise private sector jobs creation mentioned above would be a net benefit in combating long-term unemployment.


Table: Spending on active labour market programmes, 2010, % of GDP


Ireland (GDP)
Ireland (GNP)
Nordic Countries
Other OECD Europe
OECD non-Europe
Public employment service and administration
0.18
0.23
0.30
0.17
0.07
Training
0.37
0.47
0.26
0.22
0.09
Direct job creation
0.26
0.33
0.03
0.08
0.05
Other active measures
0.06
0.08
0.46
0.23
0.07
Active Labour Market Programmes, total
0.87
1.10
1.06
0.70
0.28
Source: OECD, Employment Outlook 2011, table 3.2


Box-out:

As the farcical show of Greek negotiations and austerity talks continued its merry-go-round through this week, the ECB has caused some excitement by opening up the discussion on allowing some writedowns of the Greek bonds it holds. The EFSF bonds swap would see ECB converting Government bonds the Central bank bought in the markets, for higher rated EFSF bonds, writing down its purchase discount, which in the case of Greek bonds stands around 31% of the face value of debt bought. The move has been gathering momentum and driving the bond prices up since the mid-week in a hope it will be extended to other peripheral bonds. Yet, no one in the markets seemed to notice a simple paradox. In order to create any real lasting effect on bond yields, such monetization would require a de facto injection of hundreds of billions in cash into the Euro area economy. The upside of this would be further cheapening of the credit for the peripheral states. The downside will be an even greater liquidity trap via EFSF and a sharp rise in the future interest rates on Euro denominated debt of the ordinary households and companies. With 4-4.5% ECB rates on offer and double-digit retail rates on banks loans, ECB would be robbing Paul and Jane to pay off Governments across the EU weakest states. This we now call Europe’s greatest hope for salvation?

Monday, January 18, 2010

Economcis 18/01/2010: Sunday Times 17/01/2010



Another recent article in the Sunday Times:

December Live Register figures show that this column’s earlier prediction of further deterioration in the employment and labour force conditions in Ireland for Q4 2009 – Q1 2010 are, unfortunately, coming true.

The Live Register now stands at 426,700 or 1,200 above the previous record set in September. Unemployment is estimated at 12.5 percent, and rising. Declining labour force participation and net emigration are now the only two factors that keep the unemployment rate from touching 14 percent today.

But the latest data shows that the situation on the jobs front is still worsening. Between December and November, Ireland’s ranks of unemployed swelled by 4,200, more than cancelling out the reduction in numbers achieved in October. Since March 2007 Live Register counts have fallen only once, despite the fact that we are now drawing record numbers of young would-be-workers back into colleges and training programmes.

The trend suggests that by the end of this year, we are likely to reach 13.5 percent official unemployment or higher. While the ESRI and many independent economists have highlighted the possibility that elevated levels of joblessness will persist for some time, few are willing to face the reality that the current trends and previous crises experiences across Europe, suggest that Irish long-term unemployment can remain at more than five times the rate prevailing during the Celtic Tiger era through 2020.

Broad as they are, the Live Register figures hide a much more unpleasant arithmetic that relates to the issues of growing long term unemployment, declining labour force, and the inadequacy of our policy responses to the crisis.

December Live Register shows that the majority of the seasonally adjusted increases in unemployment occurred in over 25 years of age group of workers – suggesting that the jobs losses are continuing to accumulate in core employment sectors.

More detailed QNHS results for Q3 2009 show that industry and manufacturing are now leading other sectors in terms of jobs losses. This week’s data for Q4 2009 industrial production confirms the bleak prognosis for jobs in these sectors. Computer, electronic and optical products and the overall modern manufacturing sectors are now deteriorating at the rates where employment levels in these high value-added activities are likely to come under threat in months ahead.

With more skilled and better educated workers joining the dole queues, the prospects of finding future employment for the previous Live Register signees are getting worse by the week. Many of these workers are now on the Register for 10 months or longer. In fact, from the beginning of the crisis through March 2009, some 196,000 people signed up for unemployment. Majority of these people have by now exhausted their redundancy payments and are facing transition to social welfare. They are Ireland’s new army of the long-term unemployed.

Long-term or structural unemployment is much more severe than that driven by a recession. Long term joblessness almost invariably leads to a loss of skills and lower marketability. It also results in a significant decline in incentives to seek employment or invest in future skills. Even in publicly-financed training programmes, internationally, the length of unemployment spell is negatively related to the training programmes outcomes.

Just how sticky the problem of long term unemployment is can be illustrated by the fact that during the Celtic Tiger era, as hundreds of thousands of foreign workers moved to Ireland, our long term unemployment remained static.

And Ireland is not unique in this experience. In the US, long term unemployment remained unchanged from the 1980s through mid-1990 s until the Clinton Administration reforms of the social welfare system. Across the Euro area, during the growth years of the last decade, significant declines in short term unemployment were accompanied by high long term joblessness.

Per latest data, in a year to October 1, 2009 for every five persons joining the Live two have moved into long-term unemployment, while more than one dropped out of the labour force. Thus, since the start of the crisis in Q4 2007, more than 140,000 people have either joined the ranks of the structurally unemployed or stopped searching for a job.

For these workers, there are virtually no existent policy platforms addressing the issues of skills and job search incentives.

Only holistic reform of the social welfare (aimed at reducing incentives to stay outside the workforce), a substantial cut in the minimum wage, plus a robust businesses-led jobs creation can return this pool of potential talent back to productive economy. A cut in an excise duty on booze, a car scrappage scheme and a microscopic drop in Vat comprising Government’s latest package of fiscal supports for a recovery simply won’t do.

Instead of businesses-oriented programmes aimed at stimulating exporting and domestic investment, our jobs creation policies are now shifting jobless off the official register into the twilight zone of hidden unemployment. CSO data quantifies two programmes, set up in 2009, through which taxpayers pay the unemployed to undertake Fas-supervised ‘jobs’. These individuals are not included on official unemployment roster. The Short-Term Enterprise Allowance (STEA) scheme pays workers to engage in self-employment. The Work Placement Programme engages welfare recipients in unspecified subsidized ‘employment’. In total, 3,785 individuals were ‘employed’ under both programmes at the end of September 2009.

One must question the ability of these workers to sustain employment without state subsidies at any time in the foreseeable future.

Absolutely nothing is known about the longer-term success of Fas-assisted programmes in general. Meanwhile, in countries where ‘involuntary entrepreneurship’ activities, such as STEA, are widespread, these programmes are often blamed for driving workers to accept sub-optimal jobs path in exchange for immediate income. In other words, involuntary entrepreneurship prevents many workers from actively seeking better jobs and/or investing in new skills.

A key to success of the work placement programmes rests with three broader principles, none of which appear to have been addressed by the policies put in place since the inception of the crisis.

First, selection mechanisms that determine who gets to participate in the programme must ensure that both the workers and the self employed are fully equipped for the challenges of the programmes. In the case of Fas-supported social welfare recipients programmes, the issue is whether the programmes actually select the best suited recipients with prior experience in the workforce.

Second, choice of businesses attracted into such programmes must be based on their ability to provide broadly marketable skills. Often, placement programmes box participants into jobs with firm-specific skills. Such programmes are only successful if they involve large and well-anchored employers. Even then, a restructuring or scaling down of Irish operations can leave these programmes participants with no transferable skills.

Third, the incentives to retain these participants in the labour force after the funding runs out must be put in place before the programmes commence. Clearly, absent a comprehensive reform of our social welfare system and minimum wage laws, this critical aspect of the programmes has not been followed through.

December Live Register figures show that this column’s earlier prediction of further deterioration in the employment and labour force conditions in Ireland for Q4 2009 – Q1 2010 are, unfortunately, coming true.

The Live Register now stands at 426,700 or 1,200 above the previous record set in September. Unemployment is estimated at 12.5 percent, and rising. Declining labour force participation and net emigration are now the only two factors that keep the unemployment rate from touching 14 percent today.

But the latest data shows that the situation on the jobs front is still worsening. Between December and November, Ireland’s ranks of unemployed swelled by 4,200, more than cancelling out the reduction in numbers achieved in October. Since March 2007 Live Register counts have fallen only once, despite the fact that we are now drawing record numbers of young would-be-workers back into colleges and training programmes.

The trend suggests that by the end of this year, we are likely to reach 13.5 percent official unemployment or higher. While the ESRI and many independent economists have highlighted the possibility that elevated levels of joblessness will persist for some time, few are willing to face the reality that the current trends and previous crises experiences across Europe, suggest that Irish long-term unemployment can remain at more than five times the rate prevailing during the Celtic Tiger era through 2020.

Broad as they are, the Live Register figures hide a much more unpleasant arithmetic that relates to the issues of growing long term unemployment, declining labour force, and the inadequacy of our policy responses to the crisis.

December Live Register shows that the majority of the seasonally adjusted increases in unemployment occurred in over 25 years of age group of workers – suggesting that the jobs losses are continuing to accumulate in core employment sectors.

More detailed QNHS results for Q3 2009 show that industry and manufacturing are now leading other sectors in terms of jobs losses. This week’s data for Q4 2009 industrial production confirms the bleak prognosis for jobs in these sectors. Computer, electronic and optical products and the overall modern manufacturing sectors are now deteriorating at the rates where employment levels in these high value-added activities are likely to come under threat in months ahead.

With more skilled and better educated workers joining the dole queues, the prospects of finding future employment for the previous Live Register signees are getting worse by the week. Many of these workers are now on the Register for 10 months or longer. In fact, from the beginning of the crisis through March 2009, some 196,000 people signed up for unemployment. Majority of these people have by now exhausted their redundancy payments and are facing transition to social welfare. They are Ireland’s new army of the long-term unemployed.

Long-term or structural unemployment is much more severe than that driven by a recession. Long term joblessness almost invariably leads to a loss of skills and lower marketability. It also results in a significant decline in incentives to seek employment or invest in future skills. Even in publicly-financed training programmes, internationally, the length of unemployment spell is negatively related to the training programmes outcomes.

Just how sticky the problem of long term unemployment is can be illustrated by the fact that during the Celtic Tiger era, as hundreds of thousands of foreign workers moved to Ireland, our long term unemployment remained static.

And Ireland is not unique in this experience. In the US, long term unemployment remained unchanged from the 1980s through mid-1990 s until the Clinton Administration reforms of the social welfare system. Across the Euro area, during the growth years of the last decade, significant declines in short term unemployment were accompanied by high long term joblessness.

Per latest data, in a year to October 1, 2009 for every five persons joining the Live two have moved into long-term unemployment, while more than one dropped out of the labour force. Thus, since the start of the crisis in Q4 2007, more than 140,000 people have either joined the ranks of the structurally unemployed or stopped searching for a job.

For these workers, there are virtually no existent policy platforms addressing the issues of skills and job search incentives.

Only holistic reform of the social welfare (aimed at reducing incentives to stay outside the workforce), a substantial cut in the minimum wage, plus a robust businesses-led jobs creation can return this pool of potential talent back to productive economy. A cut in an excise duty on booze, a car scrappage scheme and a microscopic drop in Vat comprising Government’s latest package of fiscal supports for a recovery simply won’t do.

Instead of businesses-oriented programmes aimed at stimulating exporting and domestic investment, our jobs creation policies are now shifting jobless off the official register into the twilight zone of hidden unemployment. CSO data quantifies two programmes, set up in 2009, through which taxpayers pay the unemployed to undertake Fas-supervised ‘jobs’. These individuals are not included on official unemployment roster. The Short-Term Enterprise Allowance (STEA) scheme pays workers to engage in self-employment. The Work Placement Programme engages welfare recipients in unspecified subsidized ‘employment’. In total, 3,785 individuals were ‘employed’ under both programmes at the end of September 2009.

One must question the ability of these workers to sustain employment without state subsidies at any time in the foreseeable future.

Absolutely nothing is known about the longer-term success of Fas-assisted programmes in general. Meanwhile, in countries where ‘involuntary entrepreneurship’ activities, such as STEA, are widespread, these programmes are often blamed for driving workers to accept sub-optimal jobs path in exchange for immediate income. In other words, involuntary entrepreneurship prevents many workers from actively seeking better jobs and/or investing in new skills.

A key to success of the work placement programmes rests with three broader principles, none of which appear to have been addressed by the policies put in place since the inception of the crisis.

First, selection mechanisms that determine who gets to participate in the programme must ensure that both the workers and the self employed are fully equipped for the challenges of the programmes. In the case of Fas-supported social welfare recipients programmes, the issue is whether the programmes actually select the best suited recipients with prior experience in the workforce.

Second, choice of businesses attracted into such programmes must be based on their ability to provide broadly marketable skills. Often, placement programmes box participants into jobs with firm-specific skills. Such programmes are only successful if they involve large and well-anchored employers. Even then, a restructuring or scaling down of Irish operations can leave these programmes participants with no transferable skills.

Third, the incentives to retain these participants in the labour force after the funding runs out must be put in place before the programmes commence. Clearly, absent a comprehensive reform of our social welfare system and minimum wage laws, this critical aspect of the programmes has not been followed through.




At this stage, there is no evidence that either Fas or any other body responsible for Ireland’s jobs support programmes have a comprehensive system of policy formulation and controls to assure that those participants who complete the programmes will not be once again drawn into the welfare system.


Box-out:

As was noted in this column last week, the stellar performance of Irish exports in 2009 was driven largely by the booming pharmaceutical sector, which posted a 12 percent increase in overseas sales in 12 months to December. However, the future of this sector is shrouded in uncertainty. Take the following major threats looming on the horizon. In Cork, Pfizer-Wyeth manufactures its blockbuster drug, Lipitor (with sales of US$12 billion in 2005 and rising since) for shipments to Europe, Middle East and Africa. Comes November 2011, Lipitor will face steep competition from generic manufacturers. The effect of Lipitor coming off patent protection is hard to estimate, but given Pfizer’s merger with Wyeth – some rationalisation globally will have to take place to justify high valuations of the combined firm. Out-of-a-blockbuster Irish operations might just be a convenient target. Roche-Genentech and Merck-Schering-Plough marriages are also facing some tough decisions on what to do with their existent older plants.

Of course, big pharma is not the only sector under pressure. Intel’s Leixlip plant last time saw investment in 2005-2006 under Fab 24.2 programme. Given life expectancies for semiconductor lines, the Leixlip facility is up for a new round of funding in the next couple of years. Or is it? To-date, IDA and Ireland-based MNCs were able to sustain high levels of inward investment to support renewal of the plants and product lines. However, as Dell’s experience shows, it takes only months for a US$15 billion manufacturer to pick up and move out of the state. It will take years to find a replacement.